2026-06-18
Why we chose an order book over an AMM
Constant-product pools get drained at resolution. We walk through the microstructure math and why a CLOB is the only honest design for binary markets.
Blog
Notes from the desk
Microstructure, resolution mechanics, and what we're shipping.
2026-06-04
Reading the longshot premium
Spreads widen from ~400 bps at 50/50 to 1,300–1,800 bps below 10¢. Here's what that means for sizing a position on a true longshot.
2026-05-21
How optimistic-oracle resolution actually settles
Propose, dispute, vote. A field guide to the $750 bond, the two-hour window, and the 48–96h escalation path — and why 98.5% never get there.
2026-05-09
Sub-second markets: building on Solana
What it takes to run a live order book with sub-cent fees, and the engineering trade-offs of settling outcome shares as SPL tokens.
2026-04-27
Probability is a product surface
A design note on treating the implied probability — not the bet — as the first-class number on every screen.